Started the Chase with a Whimper

The weekend started out with a bit of rain that washed out qualifying.  As a result, the starting grid was set by owners' points, giving Carl Edwards the 5th spot.  But that was the last time that bad weather had an impact on the race activities.

The first practice sessions saw fast speeds from the #19 Stanley Camry.  Carl finished the three sessions in 2nd, 4th, and 4th.  But that speed was not evident during the race.  He fell back two spots on the first lap alone.  After pitting during a caution on lap 48, he restarted 9th and fell back another two spots within four laps.

He reported a vibration, worried that one of the tires might be loose, but the crew said all lug nuts were tight.  Typical of Chicagoland, there were long caution-free sections of the race.  During a green-flag pit stop for four tires and fuel on lap 105, they discovered that the right front tire was badly used up.  They planned on better tire management going forward.

During a caution for a car that spun out on lap 119, they pitted for a wedge adjustment, four tires, and fuel.  They restarted 12th, but continued to fall back.  By lap 142, Carl was in 17th place.  Over the next 85 laps, he ran between 15th and 16th.  As the race continued to wind down, a few cars made green-flag pit stops, allowing Carl to gain a few spots.  With only five laps to go, he had climbed up to 11th.

And then came a glimmer of hope with a caution with five laps to go.  With the vast majority of the lead lap cars pitting, the 19 team opted to stay out.  With two laps to go, they restarted 3rd.  It was short-lived excitement, though, as the older tires could not keep up with the rest of the herd.  In only two laps, he fell back 12 spots, finishing the race in 15th place.  As a result, he currently sits 9th on the Chase grid and in the drivers' standings, 18 points behind the leader and only 5 points away from the cut-off line.

The Last Gasp of the Regular Season

During an interview early in the weekend at Richmond, Carl Edwards indicated that the 19 team was going to try out a few things in advance of the Chase, so my expectations were tempered.  That is not to say that I was not hoping for a win, but understanding the team's goals gave me a more balanced perspective.

Practices were confusing to me.  He was 8th fastest in the first practice but only 20th fastest in the second and final practice.  And while his single lap runs did not top the board, he was 3rd and 1st in ten-lap averages.  Looked like they focused on a strong long-run set up instead of qualifying speed.

That seemed to hold true once qualifying got underway.  He was 12th in the first round, advancing to round two.  But in the second round he was 13th, and with only 12 cars advancing to the third round, he did not move on.  He would start the race in 13th. 

Once the green flag dropped, he began advancing through the field.  By the time the first of many cautions came out, he was in the top ten.  But when he pitted during the caution, he got blocked in his pit stall by the car in the stall ahead of him.  As a result of the slow pit stop, he restarted back in 18th place.

When the race resumed, he once again began moving forward.  By the time the second caution flag flew on lap 84, he was back up to his starting position of 13th.  This next pit stop must have made some good adjustments, because when the race resumed he was able to get back into the top ten.

A debris caution halfway through the race gave Dave Rogers a chance to give the Arris Toyota more grip, and that grip allowed Carl to pilot his car closer to the front of the field.  Following a catuion on lap 250, Carl restarted in 2nd place.  It seemed that there were a couple of cars strong than the 19, but his car did seem to be at least a top five car.  And being that close to the front of the field can sometimes result in some serendipitous scenarios, should other teams have mishaps, so it was a good place to run.
But things changed with about a quarter of the race left to go.  When a car got into the wall and brought out the caution, a handful of teams elected to stay out instead of pitting, hoping for a change of fortune.  So even though Carl came off pit road in 3rd, he restarted 10th.

Unfortunately we brought out the next caution with a spin, but Carl was able to get the car under control without hitting anything.  And Dave and his crew were able to change the tires on pit road without losing a lap.  The 19 car restarted 19th.  For the next 70-ish laps, Carl ranged between 11th and 19th.
The next caution flag ended our night and the hope for a Richmond sweep.  In what has become far too commonplace, Tony Stewart retaliated against a perceived error by another driver, in this case Ryan Newman.  Unfortunately his actions affected several other cars as well.  Eight cars ended up damaged, including the Arris Camry.  Our race was over with less than 40 laps to go.  Carl ended up in 32nd place.

That finish dropped him 1 spot on the Chase grid from 4th to 5th, and 3 positions in the drivers' standings, from 4th to 7th.  But now that the Chase is about to begin, the points get reset.  Each driver earns 3 bonus points for each race victory, so Carl enters the Chase with 6 bonus points.  That ties him with 4 other drivers for 4th place.  But nobody knows better than a Carl Edwards fan that NASCAR has tiebreakers!  In this case, the tiebreaker is second-place finishes, if still tied then third-place finishes, and so on.  Carl is second best of that bunch, putting him in 5th place going into Chicagoland.  Now it is time to put to use all of the strategies that the team has learned during the first 26 races!

 

From Two Laps Down to One Lap Down

Hermine (the hurricane) made a feeble attempt to derail the Darlington race weekend.  The rain and wind were so severe that NASCAR had to cancel all track activity on Friday, but the storm blew through and left Saturday and Sunday available for some racing action.

With one less day of preparation for racing, NASCAR decided to cancel all qualifying sessions, to allow the teams to have practice time instead.  As a result, the starting grid was set according to owner's standings, putting Carl in the 3rd spot.  And from the looks of practice, that was a good thing.  His practice speeds put him 22nd in the first session and 7th in the second and final session, so it seemed unlikely that he would have gotten a better starting position than 3rd.

Unfortunately during the race, 3rd was the closest he got to the front of the race.  He did hang on to a top five position for about the first 40 laps or so.  But then he steadily fell back, out of the top ten around lap 100, out of the top fifteen about 20 laps later.  He would claw his way forward, only to slide back again.

But during a caution on lap 213, Dave Rogers called for big changes.  In addition to four fresh tires and fuel, the pit crew also gave him a wedge adjustment and took two packers out of the front on both sides of the car.  All that work took a little bit of time, so they restarted in 17th place.  But the changes seemed to help, because he gained a spot about every other lap.  In less than 40 laps, he was back inside the top ten.  
He spent the next 75 laps or so between 8th and 15th, moving up a bit here, falling back a bit there.  But while on pit road getting serviced during a caution, he ran into another car, damaging the left front corner of his car.  To avoid losing a lap, they went back out on the track and restarted in 13th.  But the damage was rubbing on the tire, quickly sending the 19 Arris Toyota Camry back to pit road for repairs, leaving him two laps down.
 

With less than 30 laps left in the race, he was able to get back one but not both of those laps.  He finished the race in 19th place.  That kept him in the 4th spot on the Chase grid, but he lost one spot in the drivers' standing, dropping from 3rd to 4th.

Slip Sliding Away in Michigan

NASCAR used this second race in Michigan as another (and probable last) time to try out the even-lower downforce package that they are considering for 2017.  Consequently all of the teams were dealing with some unknowns.  This was a relatively safe time to do some testing for the future, given that this track is not in the Chase.

Carl's Arris Surfboard Camry unloaded with a bit less speed than he has usually shown this year.  His practice speeds were consistent, with 10th, 11th, and 9th places.  And the three rounds of qualifying were similar:  12th, 10th, and 9th.  It turns out that those positions were a glimpse into the future.

The common race refrain from everyone was "loose loose loose."  The 19 Toyota was so loose on the first lap that Carl had to react quickly to catch the car as it was sliding up the racetrack.  As a result, he fell from 9th to 13th by the time he completed his first lap around the track.  He continued to lose positions until he was all the way back in 17th by the time the competition caution on lap 20.

His always speedy pit crew got him a few spots on pit road, so he restarted in 14th on lap 25.  A few laps later his teammate Kyle Busch spun out just inside of him, sending the 18 car sliding through the grass.  Remarkably he did not get into Carl or hit anyone else, ending up with no damage to his car.  Considering how loose everyone was, you would have expected a lot of cars spinning out this afternoon, but the race did not play out that way.

When the race resumed on lap 29 following Kyle's spin, Carl restarted in the 11th spot.  The   race went caution free for 89 laps, so we saw the usual Michigan green-flag pit stops.  Carl told his crew chief that his car was too free on entry and had no speed in turns three and four.  Dave Rogers responded with a significant air pressure adjustment and a wedge adjustment to accompany the four tires and fuel.  But that did not have much effect on his position.  Both before and after that green-flag pit stop, he ran between 10th and 14th.

The green flag laps were broken up with a debris caution on lap 118.  The orange and white Arris car pitted for four more tires and fuel.  But following the caution, the car continued to fall back through the field.  Within 25 laps, he was back as far as the 17th position.

When the final caution flag waved 14 laps before the end of the race, Carl had advanced only three positions.  The team elected to stay out, getting Carl the best track position of the entire race.    With 9 laps to go, he restarted in 5th place.  On older tires, he did fall back a few positions, eventually crossing the finish line in 7th.  He maintained the 4th spot on the Chase grid but moved up one position in the drivers' standings, from 4th to 3rd.

The Gibbs cars as a whole did not show the power they have usually demonstrated.  Carl's 7th place finish was the best of the bunch, with his teammates coming home in 9th, 13th, and 19th.  It does make you wonder if they will not do as well next year with the new even-lower downforce package.  Of course, there are other explanations to consider as well.  Perhaps they have not yet taken the time and money to work on next year.  Or they have and they are simply not showing their hand to their competitors.  In any case, it makes me wish extra hard that Carl aces this year's championship run, while JGR continues to run strong.

Meanwhile, the race announcers were busy preparing for a new race winner.  With young Chase Elliott leading the race, they spoke eloquently about the history of the 24 car, and how nobody but Jeff Gordon has ever won a race with that car number.  They had the cameras trained on Rick Hendrick as he watched his rookie run up front.  They described the nail biting that his crew chief was going through, and imagined how proud his father would be.

Well, they got their new race winner, but they had the number backwards.  Without any cameras focused on Chip Ganassi, Kyle Larson in the 42 car finally did what everyone knew he would eventually do.  He crossed the finish line first and kept going, doing doughnuts right into the winner's circle, and launching himself into the Chase.  He was so exciting that he literally leapt into the arms of his teammates.  During his interview in victory lane, the adrenaline surge left his legs so weak that he slid to the floor.  Welcome to the contenders, Mr. Larson.

5 Poles and 1,000 Laps Led

The Cup series visits Bristol twice each year.  The second visit is planned to be a night race.  This year it was a night-day-night race.  It started at night on Saturday, but was red flagged for rain after only 38 laps.  Rescheduled to resume at lunchtime on Sunday, the weather did not cooperate until the middle of the afternoon.  By the time the race ended, it was nighttime on Sunday.

In preparation for this race, Carl's practice times ranked him 9th and 10th in practice.  But in qualifying, he and his teammates led the way.  The Stanley Camry advanced through all qualifying rounds.  The Gibbs cars grabbed four of the top five positions, with Carl earning his fifth pole of the season.

Carl's car ranged between pretty good and downright speedy.  Because he started on the pole, he got to choose which lane he would start in.  Believing that the rosin put down on the inside lane would prove to be advantageous, he selected the inside lane.  Apparently that was not the best option, as he fell back 6 spots in the first 18 laps.  When the race was suspended for the night, he was in 7th place.

When the race resumed on Sunday afternoon, he continued the backward slide until he found himself in the 12th spot.  But that is as far back as he would go.  He started to move back up through the field, getting back one position at a time.  It took about 120 laps until he got back into the lead, the result of a top notch pit stop that got him off pit road first.  He held the lead for about 25 laps, just enough for reach 1,000 laps lead at Bristol!

There were several cautions brought out by spins and collisions that collected innocent cars.  Other than debris hitting his grill during one of the cautions, Carl managed to avoid all of the on-track obstacles.  In spite of that, he struggled to get back to the lead.  He ranged from 2nd to 9th, finally ending the race in 6th place.  He fell one spot on the Chase grid, from 3rd to 4th, but moved up one position in the drivers' standings, from 5th to 4th.

Leading the Pole Championship Race

Carl had a pretty good car in practice, finishing the first practice in 4th and the second and final practice in 10th.  But he really shined (shone?) in qualifying.  He was second in the first round, then went one spot better in the second and final round, grabbing his 4th pole of the season and his 20th of his Cup career.  He swept the poles for the road courses this season and has more poles this season than any other driver.  If there was a championship handed out for pole positions, he would be in the lead!

With Carl starting on the pole combined with holding the best average finish of 8.4 at Watkins Glen, best of any active driver, this looked to be a good race for him.  He led for the first 25 laps, until green flag pit stops got underway.  That is when his luck changed.

One of the tire changers removed the front right tire and pushed it toward the wall to be caught by a crew member on the other side of the wall.  But the push was a little off kilter, so instead of the tire getting close enough to the wall to be grabbed, it wobbled in front of and around the 19 car.  So on lap 30, Carl had to do a drive through on pit road, the penalty for an uncontrolled tire, dropping him to 30th place. 

Between other drivers completing their green flag pit stops and Carl getting around slower cars, he got back up to 14th place by the time the caution flag came out on lap 47.  Rather than pitting, they chose to stay out, putting him up near the head of the field.  On lap 52, he restarted in 2nd.

 

The field had only barely restarted when a big wreck brought out the red flag, parking the cars for over 13 minutes.  Once the track was cleaned up and the cars were allowed to move again, the 19 team pitted for 4 tires and fuel.  With struggles to get fuel into the car, they ended up restarting in 23rd when the race went green again on lap 56. 

 

Once again the race had barely resumed when another wreck brought the caution flag back out.  This time we were involved, but fortunately the damage was not so bad that we had to go to the garage.  His crew got him fixed up and back on the track in 30th place for the restart on lap 59.

 

Again he gained ground, passing cars, maneuvering his Stanley Toyota up to 14th.  On lap 83, another wreck brought out the second red flag of the race.  When the track was cleaned up and the race resumed, Carl restarted in 14th.  He spent the remaining 15 laps ranging between 14th and 17th, finally crossing the finish line in 15th place.  He maintained the 3rd spot on the Chase grid and 5th in the drivers' standings.

David Beats Goliath at Pocono

As we have come to expect, Dave Rogers brought Carl a fast Stanley Camry for the second Pocono race of the season.  All of the practices and qualifying rounds saw the 19 team in the top ten:  4th and 9th in the two practice sessions; and 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in the three qualifying rounds.  So they looked ahead to the race with a front-row starting position.

 

Mother Nature decided to throw a monkey wrench into the weekend schedule with stubborn Sunday rain.  The race was delayed until Monday morning, meaning that many of us (yours truly included) had to hide from social media and the news until we could watch a recording of the race.

Carl started out strong, running in the second position until the competition caution on lap 15.  His team opted for 4 tires when most other teams took 2, so he restarted in 14th.  Other than a quick caution for Truex putting his car into the outside wall, the race ran green for quite some time.  By the time the next caution flag waved on lap 60, Carl had moved his Toyota up to 6th.  He came off pit road in 3rd, but restarted 9th because a half a dozen cars did not pit.

 

On the restart, he fell back to 13th place.  During the next 35 laps, he ranged between 10th and 15th place.  Truex brought out the caution again on lap 99.  This time we did not pit, finally get back up near the front of the field in 4th place.

 

Mother Nature was not yet done with NASCAR, though.  On lap 131, with Carl in 8th place, the fog rolled in.  It was so thick you could not see across the raceway.  For several laps the cars continued to circle the track.  But as the raindrops started to fall, the race was red flagged and the cars were covered.  NASCAR waited some time before finally giving up and calling the race on lap 138 of 160.

 

During an interview after the race, Carl was disappointed that they could not complete the race, as he felt he had a car capable of better than an 8th place finish.  Coincidentally, that is the same finish he earned when the Cup series visited Pocono earlier this season.  He maintained the 3rd spot on the Chase grid, and moved up one position in the drivers' standings, from 6th to 5th.

 

While we always would prefer that Carl take the checkered flag and give us a backflip, it was fun to see that the race was won by Chris Buescher, a former teammate of Carl from his Roush days.  And Chris has Carl's former crew chief, Bob Osborne, sitting atop the pit box.  It was good to see him in victory lane once again.

 

This was Chris' first Cup win, and the first win by a rookie this season.  He is currently on loan from Roush to Front Row Motorsports, one of the underdog teams who try to battle with the big boys on a much smaller budget.  They do not get to taste victory very often, so it is especially sweet for them.  And the win is huge for their bottom line, both for the prize money as well as the increased interest from sponsors.

 

Chris' team now sits 6 points out of the top 30 in points.  If they can claw their way into the top 30, they will make the Chase.  If they do, that will have big repercussions from the bubble drivers trying to point their way into the playoffs, because one fewer spot will be available.  Carl may be safely in the Chase, but there will be plenty of storylines to watch between now and the middle of September.