Moving on to the Next Round

Rain seems to follow the NASCAR haulers around the country.  It certainly interfered with this weekend in Dover, Delaware.  The first practice was the only session that ran its full length; Carl was 2nd fastest.  The second practice was shortened; Carl was 9th.  The third and final practice session was completely canceled, as was qualifying.  As a result the starting grid was set by owners' points, sending Carl to the green flag in 10th place.

During much of the race Carl struggled with a tight racecar and a lack of grip.  In spite of those issues he was very consistent, with his position ranging from 9th to 12th.  Not terrific, but good enough.  Going in to the race, the team knew that nothing could prevent them from advancing if they finished in the top ten.

Two things set up the conclusion of the Carl's race.  First, the eventual race winner, Martin Truex, Jr., had a car so fast that only 6 cars finished on the lead lap.  Second, there were only 4 cautions over the entire race.  Carl and quite a number of other good cars found themselves a lap down to the leader.  Carl went one lap down on lap 318.

Without a caution, teams started making green-flag pit stops.  Once Truex pitted, Carl was back on the lead lap but in need of fuel to get to the end of the race.  As the 19 team considered their final green-flag pit stop, they choose to wait as long as possible, in the hopes that a caution would come out and they would be one of the few cars on the lead lap.

But that caution did not come, so with 25 laps to go they made their final pit stop.  That put them another lap down.  Because Carl was on fresher tires, he was able to get one lap back by passing the leader.  But the race ended with the driver of the Arris Surfboard Toyota one lap down in 14th place. 

Carl ended the first round of the Chase in 10th place, 21 points above the cut line, advancing to the second round.  The drivers' points will be reset, so everybody will start off even.  I am not sure how that 12-way tie will be broken (for the purpose of setting the starting grid, in case that rain cloud continues to visit).  I suspect it will be based on number of 1st, then number of 2nd, then number of 3rds, etc.  When I hear, I will update this blog.

UPDATE:

The 12-way tie is broken based on best finish in the first round of the Chase.  If two or more drivers have the same best finish, then they look at the next best finish.  Ironically this method keeps Carl right where he was before the points were reset, in 10th.  Other drivers, though, shifted positions.  Here is a detailed look at the data.  The key finishes are highlighted in red.

1. Martin Truex -- 1st at Chicago -- 7th at Loudon -- 1st at Dover
2. Kevin Harvick -- 20th at Chicago -- 1st at Loudon -- 37th at Dover
3. Kyle Busch -- 8th at Chicago -- 3rd at Loudon -- 2nd at Dover
4. Matt Kenseth -- 9th at Chicago -- 2nd at Loudon -- 5th at Dover
5. Joey Logano -- 2nd at Chicago -- 11th at Loudon -- 6th at Dover
6. Chase Elliott -- 3rd at Chicago -- 13th at Loudon -- 3rd at Dover
7. Brad Keselowski -- 5th at Chicago -- 4th at Loudon -- 4th at Dover
8. Kurt Busch -- 13th at Chicago -- 5th at Loudon -- 15th at Dover
9. Denny Hamlin -- 6th at Chicago -- 15th at Loudon -- 9th at Dover
10. Carl Edwards -- 15th at Chicago -- 6th at Loudon -- 14th at Dover
11. Jimmie Johnson -- 12th at Chicago -- 8th at Loudon -- 7th at Dover
12. Austin Dillon -- 14th at Chicago -- 16th at Loudon -- 8th at Dover