Bad Luck for Some Is Good Luck for Carl

With Hurricane Matthew bearing down on the coastal states, it was clear that weather was again going to play a part in the race weekend activities.  Fortunately the Thursday activities took place without interruption.  Carl posted the 9th fastest speed in the first practice.  Then during qualifying, he posted top ten speeds during each of the three rounds, advancing to keep himself in the mix, and finally ending up in 8th place.  That is two positions better than if qualifying had been rained out with the starting grid set by owners' points.

 

But then Matthew got close enough to require the cancellation of all track activities on Friday and Saturday.  What was to have been a Saturday night race ended up being a Sunday afternoon race.  Once the race got underway Carl fell back a couple of spots but regained those positions prior to the competition caution on lap 25.  Initially he said that his car was tight in traffic, but then the track changed, getting slicker, and his car was a little looser in.  During the competition caution, his team gave him four fresh tires, fuel, and one position better than he came in.

So he restarted 7th when the race went back green, and he began to advance.  He gained a spot on the restart.  (Yes, you read that right.  Carl had a good restart!)  Another ten laps, he gained another position, putting his car into the top five for the first time.

The next caution came out when a car got into the wall and caught another car in the mess.  Even though Carl was not too far behind the crash, he got by cleanly.  As a result, he was now running in 4th.  His top-notch pit crew gave him exactly what they gave him the first time:  four tires, fuel, and one more position, plus an air pressure adjustment.  

He restarted in 3rd on lap 70, reporting his car was now a little too tight.  Worse, he thought he felt a vibration.  It was more than 40 laps before he next pitted, coming in for a green-flag pit stop for four tires, fuel, and another air pressure adjustment.  The team concluded the vibration was likely from a cracked exhaust, thankfully not a serious issue.

Before everyone completed their green-flag pit stops, another car got into the wall and brought out the caution, putting Carl a lap down.  But because he had pitted recently he was able to take the wave around and get his lap back.  It did, however, put him at the back of the field.  He restarted 10th and spent the next 40 laps between 10th and 12th.

The next caution for a car in the wall brought him up to 10th, and after pitting for four tires and fuel on lap 158 he came off pit road in 9th.  Once the race resumed, he gradually moved forward bit by bit.  Over the next 40 laps, he got himself up to the 6th spot and maintained it through a cycle of green-flag pit stops.

His luck started to change when the next caution came out for debris on the track.  After restarting in 7th, he slowly lost a few spots over the next ten laps, falling back to 10th.  Then another car in the wall, another pit stop, another position lost, and another restart.

That's when Charlotte gave us a brief glimpse of what is in store for us in a couple of weeks when we go to Talladega.  A chain reaction on the restart got Carl tagged in the right rear, sending his car fishtailing down the track.  Thankfully he was able to get the car under control without hitting anything.  NASCAR parked the cars on a red flag for almost 11 minutes.

Dave Rogers deemed the needed repairs serious enough to bring Carl down pit road even before pit road was officially open.  As a result, Carl had to start at the rear of the field in 15th place.   But his car was still in good condition, and he was able to steadily move forward.  By the time the next caution came out about 40 laps later, he was back up to 9th.

During his pit stop during this caution, the air gun jammed, slowing down his typically quick pit time.  He came off pit road in 13th place and was able to advance only one more spot before the race came to an end.  He finished the race in 12th place.

That might not seem like a very good finish until you put everything into perspective.  Only 5 of those 11 drivers ahead of him were in the Chase.  And in his wake was a slew of disasters.  Amazingly 5 of the 6 Chase drivers behind him ended their day in the garage, due to tire issues and engine failures, finishing anywhere from 30 to 180 laps down, earning very few points.  So when all was said and done, Carl finds himself 6th both on the Chase grid as well as in the drivers' standings.  He is 16 points behind the leader and 20 points ahead of the cut-off line.

As if the on-track action wasn't exciting enough, Carl's pit crew was so lightning fast that they burst into flames!  Okay, that is not completely correct.  There were flames in the pit stall, but it was caused by some spilt fuel that ignited.  The uniform of the gas man, Kenneth Purcell, caught fire.  A few swats at the flames followed by a well-aimed fire extinguisher saved the day.  Take a look at the video in the accompanying article:

Fire in the Pits

 

Next we follow the yellow brick road to Carl's home track in Kansas.

Moving on to the Next Round

Rain seems to follow the NASCAR haulers around the country.  It certainly interfered with this weekend in Dover, Delaware.  The first practice was the only session that ran its full length; Carl was 2nd fastest.  The second practice was shortened; Carl was 9th.  The third and final practice session was completely canceled, as was qualifying.  As a result the starting grid was set by owners' points, sending Carl to the green flag in 10th place.

During much of the race Carl struggled with a tight racecar and a lack of grip.  In spite of those issues he was very consistent, with his position ranging from 9th to 12th.  Not terrific, but good enough.  Going in to the race, the team knew that nothing could prevent them from advancing if they finished in the top ten.

Two things set up the conclusion of the Carl's race.  First, the eventual race winner, Martin Truex, Jr., had a car so fast that only 6 cars finished on the lead lap.  Second, there were only 4 cautions over the entire race.  Carl and quite a number of other good cars found themselves a lap down to the leader.  Carl went one lap down on lap 318.

Without a caution, teams started making green-flag pit stops.  Once Truex pitted, Carl was back on the lead lap but in need of fuel to get to the end of the race.  As the 19 team considered their final green-flag pit stop, they choose to wait as long as possible, in the hopes that a caution would come out and they would be one of the few cars on the lead lap.

But that caution did not come, so with 25 laps to go they made their final pit stop.  That put them another lap down.  Because Carl was on fresher tires, he was able to get one lap back by passing the leader.  But the race ended with the driver of the Arris Surfboard Toyota one lap down in 14th place. 

Carl ended the first round of the Chase in 10th place, 21 points above the cut line, advancing to the second round.  The drivers' points will be reset, so everybody will start off even.  I am not sure how that 12-way tie will be broken (for the purpose of setting the starting grid, in case that rain cloud continues to visit).  I suspect it will be based on number of 1st, then number of 2nd, then number of 3rds, etc.  When I hear, I will update this blog.

UPDATE:

The 12-way tie is broken based on best finish in the first round of the Chase.  If two or more drivers have the same best finish, then they look at the next best finish.  Ironically this method keeps Carl right where he was before the points were reset, in 10th.  Other drivers, though, shifted positions.  Here is a detailed look at the data.  The key finishes are highlighted in red.

1. Martin Truex -- 1st at Chicago -- 7th at Loudon -- 1st at Dover
2. Kevin Harvick -- 20th at Chicago -- 1st at Loudon -- 37th at Dover
3. Kyle Busch -- 8th at Chicago -- 3rd at Loudon -- 2nd at Dover
4. Matt Kenseth -- 9th at Chicago -- 2nd at Loudon -- 5th at Dover
5. Joey Logano -- 2nd at Chicago -- 11th at Loudon -- 6th at Dover
6. Chase Elliott -- 3rd at Chicago -- 13th at Loudon -- 3rd at Dover
7. Brad Keselowski -- 5th at Chicago -- 4th at Loudon -- 4th at Dover
8. Kurt Busch -- 13th at Chicago -- 5th at Loudon -- 15th at Dover
9. Denny Hamlin -- 6th at Chicago -- 15th at Loudon -- 9th at Dover
10. Carl Edwards -- 15th at Chicago -- 6th at Loudon -- 14th at Dover
11. Jimmie Johnson -- 12th at Chicago -- 8th at Loudon -- 7th at Dover
12. Austin Dillon -- 14th at Chicago -- 16th at Loudon -- 8th at Dover

Pole, Pit Road Problems, and Recovery

While being interviewed prior to the weekend, Carl Edwards was heard to say that the 19 crew was frustrated with the 19 team's struggles last weekend in Chicagoland so it does not come as a surprise that they worked hard to bring a fast car to New Hampshire.  After posting the fourth fastest time in the first practice, they came out and dominated all three qualifying rounds.  Carl zipped through the first round with the fastest time, then easily moved on from round 2 to round 3 with the sixth fastest time.  Then, in the third and final qualifying round, he grabbed the pole!  Again!
 

This was Carl's sixth pole of the year, earning a special bonus from Coors Light, the pole sponsor.  Any driver who can put together a "six-pack" of poles in a single season is awarded $25,000 to be donated to charity.  Carl opted to split his winnings between two worthwhile charities:  half went to Speedway Children's Charities, half to the NASCAR Foundation in memory of Betty Jane France.

Carl followed up his speedy qualifying run with a sixth in second practice.  In the third and final practice, he posted the fourth fastest time, but the fastest time in ten-lap averages.  While all of this sounded promising, Carl himself cautioned that he has had trouble in the past with converting speed in qualifying to speed in the race at Loudon's mile-long racetrack.

He started off the race with a bang, holding the top position for the first 30 laps.  Even when he slid back, he only lost a few positions.   He held 2nd place for the second 30 laps.  He was still in 3rd when he made his first green-flag pit stop on lap 77.   Once everyone cycled through their green-flag stops, he was in 5th.

The first caution flag flew on lap 123 for debris.  Pulling into his pit stall, he overshot his ideal position by just a little bit.  The resulting just-a-wee-bit slower-than-usual pit stop lost him a couple of spots, so he restarted in 7th, then fell back to 8th.

He got that spot back before the next debris caution on lap 165.  He pitted for four tires and fuel but no adjustments, although he was advised to adjust the track bar prior to the restart.  This time his pit crew snagged him two spots, so he restarted in 5th on lap 171.  He lost two spots in five laps, noting that he restarts with adequate grip that quickly goes away.  Although he was posting some of the fastest times on the track, he was only able to move up one spot in the next ten laps. 

50 laps later, it was time for another green-flag pit stop, this time getting four tires, fuel, and a slight air pressure adjustment to free up his car.  Once most of the cars had completed their stops, he found himself in 10th place.

The caution flag came back out on lap 238 for a car in the outside wall.  The build-for-speed Comcast Business Camry pitted for right-side tires only and restarted 10th.  He spent the next 25 laps between the 9th and 11th positions.

When a car spun out and brought out the caution flag on 263, the team pondered whether or not to pit.  A last-minute decision to come to pit road was made just a tiny bit too late, as Carl had the slimmest of a pit road commitment line violation.  Cars need to have all four tires inside the commitment box at the entrance of pit road, but his right rear tire ran over that box.  As a result, he had to fall to the rear of the field for the restart, putting him back in 20th place on lap 267, with only 33 laps to go.

His frustration with his mistake seemed to fuel his car, because he clawed his way forward.  On average, he advanced one position every four laps, until the next caution flag for a car in the outside wall on lap 284.  This time he did not pit, restarting in 10th on lap 288, now with only 12 laps to go.

He gained two spots almost immediately and two more spots in the next five laps.  When the folks in the flagstand waved the checkered flag, his Toyota crossed the finish line in 6th place.  During his after-the-race interview, he said he had a car capable of a top three or four, so a 6th place finish would be respectable under any circumstance.  But given the fact that his pit road mistake buried him in the middle of the field, 6th place was magnificent.

Had he finished the race back in that 20th spot, he would have been 3 points below the cut-off line at the end of the day.  Instead he finds himself 16 points ahead of the cut-off line, 13 points better than he was before the race got underway.  He currently sits in 10th both on the Chase grid and in the drivers' standings, one position back from last weekend.  With only two drivers separating him from that dreaded elimination line, it is good that next we go to Dover, one of the tracks where Carl has enjoyed success.